SISTEM PERAMALAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN WEIGHT MOVING AVERAGE DI PERUSAHAAN KONSTRUKSI TELEKOMUNIKASI
Abstract
Meramalkan penjualan di perusahaan menjadi kunci untuk mempertahankan tren kompetitif dan memenangkan persaingan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan sistem metode peramalan penjualan bahan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing (ES) dan Weight Moving Average (WMA). ES menggunakan rata - rata bergerak dengan meramalkan hasil periode terakhir ditambah porsi perbedaan (α). WMA adalah metode perkiraan cara perhitungannya mirip dengan MA, hanya berbeda dalam penambahan bobot pada setiap data. Penelitian ini membandingkan hasil peramalan antara metode ES dan WMA dengan berbagai data referensi penelitian dari Januari 2015 hingga Desember 2015 dan perkiraan Januari 2016 untuk batas jenis barang AC-OF-SM-12-SC. Hasil untuk bulan Januari 2016 metode WMA memprediksi penjualan 904.590,25 dengan tingkat akurasi perkiraan 52,05%, dan metode ES pada 75530,03 dengan tingkat akurasi 89,59%.
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Kata Kunci: Forecasting, Exponential Smoothing (ES), Weight Moving Average (WMA), Sales MaterialDownloads
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