DETERMINANTS OF GDP PER CAPITA IN BRICS AND ASEAN COUNTRIES: A QUANTILE REGRESSION APPROACH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30996/die.v17i01.133232Keywords:
GDP per capita, Quantile Regression, BRICS and ASEAN, Economic GrowthAbstract
This study investigates the determinants of GDP per capita in BRICS and ASEAN countries by accounting for heterogeneity across income levels. While previous research predominantly relies on mean-based estimation methods, such approaches may conceal variations in how growth factors operate across different stages of development. Using panel data from 21 countries over the period 2010–2023, this study applies quantile regression to examine how macroeconomic factors, labor productivity, and institutional quality influence GDP per capita at the 0.25, 0.50, and 0.75 quantiles.
The results reveal that household consumption significantly promotes GDP per capita only in middle- and upper-income countries, while foreign direct investment and government expenditure show no significant effects across quantiles. In contrast, labor productivity and political stability consistently exert strong positive influences at all income levels, indicating their fundamental role in sustaining economic growth. Government effectiveness becomes significant only in higher-income countries, suggesting that institutional capacity yields greater returns as economies mature.
These findings highlight that productivity enhancement and institutional stability, rather than capital inflows alone, are the primary drivers of income growth in emerging economies. The study underscores the importance of policies focused on human capital development, structural transformation, and governance improvement to achieve inclusive and sustainable economic growth.
Downloads
References
Ali, I. (2024). Socioeconomic Determinants of Per Capita GDP Growth in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis. South Asian Journal of Finance, 4(2), 112–135. https://doi.org/10.4038/sajf.v4i2.98
Alili Sulejmani, L., & Thaci, A. (2020). The Nexus Between Private Consumption And Economic Growth : Evidence From Western Balkan Countries Arta Thaci. 46(2017), 725–729.
Arga Christian Sitohang, & Bambang Wiwoho. (2022). The Influence of Labor Competence, and Innovation Behavior on the Motivation for Achievement and Performance of Wooden Furniture Smes Employees in Pasuruan City. IJEBD (International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Business Development). Vol 5 No 6, P 1074-1083
AMRO. (2025). ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2025: Resilience and Future Growth. https://amro-asia.org
Ansari, M. A., Khan, F., & Singh, M. K. (2021). Public expenditure and economic development: New evidence from the BRICS-SAARC-ASEAN region. Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), and South Asian Theoretical and Applied Economics, XXVIII(2), 155–174.
Arcos-Guanga, A., Flor-Unda, O., Novillo-Villegas, S., & Acosta-Vargas, P. (2024). The Impact of Knowledge Spillovers on Economic Growth from a National Perspective: A Comprehensive Analysis. Sustainability (Switzerland), 16(15), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16156537
Aslam, A., & Brooks, P. K. (2024). Emerging Markets on the Global Stage. Finance and Development, 61(3), 58–61.
Badan Pusat Statistik Kota Jakarta Pusat. (2025). Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Kota Jakarta Pusat Menurut Pengeluaran 2020–2024.
Baiashvili, T., & Gattini, L. (2020). Impact of FDI on economic growth: The role of country income levels and institutional strength. European Investment Bank (EIB). www.eib.org/economics
Blancas, C. S. D., & Castro, G. Á. (2024). Trade Liberalization Effects on Economic Growth, 1980-2022. Revista Mexicana de Economia y Finanzas Nueva Epoca, 19(3), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.21919/remef.v19i3.992
BRICS Brazil. (2025). BRICS GDP outperforms global average, accounts for 40% of world economy. BRICS – Government of Brazil. https://brics.br/en/news/brics-gdp-outperforms-global-average-accounts-for-40-of-world-economy
Cardani, R., Pfeiffer, P., Ratto, M., & Vogel, L. (2023). The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison. European Economic Review, 158, 104556. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104556
Celik, A., Bajja, S., Radoine, H., Chenal, J., & Bouyghrissi, S. (2024). Effects of urbanization and international trade on economic growth, productivity, and employment: Case of selected countries in Africa. Heliyon, 10(13), e33539. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e33539
Chizema, D. (2025). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Development in South Asia and Southeastern Asia. Economies, 13(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13060157
Compagnucci, F., Gentili, A., Valentini, E., & Gallegati, M. (2021). Have jobs and wages stopped rising? Productivity and structural change in advanced countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 56, 412–430. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2018.07.003
D’Aloia, F., & Gugler, P. (2024). Impact of Covid-19 on the Economic Growth of ASEAN Countries: Convergence or Divergence? International Journal of Global Business and Competitiveness, 19(2), 83–95. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42943-024-00098-2
Demir, F., & Lee, S. (2022). Foreign direct investment, capital accumulation, and growth: The rise of the Emerging South. International Review of Economics and Finance, 80(February), 779–794. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.044
Emako, E., Nuru, S., & Menza, M. (2022). The effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth in developing countries. Transnational Corporations Review, 14(4), 382–401. https://doi.org/10.1080/19186444.2022.2146967
Fahri, L. O., Imamah, N., & Darmawan, A. (2022). Financial Integration, Technology Transfer, Labor Productivity Growth and Economic Growth on Pre-and-During COVID-19 Crisis: Evidence from G20 Countries. Jurnal Keuangan Dan Perbankan, 26(3), 615–637. https://doi.org/10.26905/jkdp.v26i3.7923
Gil-Alana, L. A., Solarin, S. A., Balcilar, M., & Gupta, R. (2023). Productivity and GDP: international evidence of persistence and trends over 130 years of data. Empirical Economics, 64(3), 1219–1246. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-022-02281-x
Hashani, M., Ziberi, B., & Bajrami, R. (2022). The Rule Of Thumb : Private Consumption As A Driving Force Of The Economic Growth Of Western Balkan Countries. 11(3), 54–60. https://doi.org/10.22495/jgrv11i3art5
International Monetary Fund. (2023). FOREWORD Resilient Global Economy Is Limping Along, with Growing Divergences. October.
Jamshed, B., Yang, J., Vatanjon, H., Chomen, D. A., & Alsaoub, N. (2024). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth: An Evidence from Asian Countries 1995-2021. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 14(12), 1775–1804. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajibm.2024.1412089
Karim, M., Simoh, M., El Baraka, H., El Yazidi, M., & Mouhil, I. (2024). A Spatial Exploration of Political Stability, Investment, and Economic Prosperity in Africa. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 14(4), 34–43. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.15936
Kaya, H. D., & Engkuchik, E. N. S. (2021). The Determinants Of Gdp Per Capita For China Versus Other Brics Economies: Are They Different? Annals of the “Constantin Brancusi” University of Targu Jiu, Economy Series, 2, 19–25.
Lucas, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
Lutfi, A. N. F. M. Y. (2024). Analisis Dampak Ekspor, Investasi, dan Persepsi Korupsi terhadap PDB 5 Negara Berkembang ASEAN. Greenomika, 6(2), 162–171. https://journal.unusida.ac.id/index.php/gnk/article/view/1509
Machali, I. (2021). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif Panduan Praktis Merencanakan, Melaksanakan dan Analisis dalam Penelitian Kuantitatif. In NBER Working Papers. Fakultas Ilmu Tarbiyah dan Keguruan, UIN Sunan Kalijaga Yogyakarta. http://www.nber.org/papers/w16019
Mahran, H. A. (2023). The impact of governance on economic growth: spatial econometric approach. Review of Economics and Political Science, 8(1), 37–53. https://doi.org/10.1108/REPS-06-2021-0058
McKibbin, W., & Fernando, R. (2023). The global economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic Modelling, 129(October), 106551. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106551
Mourad, M., & Trabulsi, H. (2019). Economic Growth Analysis of a Singapore : Simultaneous Equations Model. Journal of Business & Financial Affairs, 8(2), 1–9.
Murjani. (2022). Prosedur Pendekatan Kuantitatif. Iaisambas, 5 No. 1(1), 687–713.
Owusu-Mensah, M., Manu, C. A., & Arhenful, P. (2023). Government Spending And Economic Growth Nexus In Sub-Saharan Africa: An Econometric Analysis. European Scientific Journal, ESJ, 19(22), 112. https://doi.org/10.19044/esj.2023.v19n22p112
Rahman, A. A., & Schmillen, A. (2023). From Farms to Factories and Firms—Structural Transformation and Labor Productivity Growth in Malaysia. Asian Economic Papers, 22(1), 82–111. https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00862
Rismawan, L. B., Haryanto, T., & Handoyo, R. D. (2021). Foreign Direct Investment Spillovers and Economic Growth: Evidence from Asian Emerging Countries. Ekuilibrium : Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Ilmu Ekonomi, 16(1), 49. https://doi.org/10.24269/ekuilibrium.v16i1.3272
Ritahi, O., & Echaoui, A. (2024). Effects of Corruption, Government Effectiveness and Political stability on Economic Growth: Evidence from Morocco. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 14(4), 87–95. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.16225
Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S71–S102. https://doi.org/10.3386/w3210
Sakyi, D., & Egyir, J. (2017). Effects of trade and FDI on economic growth in Africa: an empirical investigation. Transnational Corporations Review, 9(2), 66–87. https://doi.org/10.1080/19186444.2017.1326717
Sugiyono. (2013). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D. PT RajaGrafindo Persada.
Sukirno, S. (2006). Ekonomi pembangunan: proses, masalah, dan dasar kebijakan. Kencana Prenada Media Group.
Syam, S. F., & Abdur-Rabb, A. F. (2025). Government Effectiveness, Political Stability And Economic Development: Evidence From Asean-5 Panel Data Model. RIGGS: Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Business, 4(3), 2137–2143. https://doi.org/10.31004/riggs.v4i3.2265
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Ratika Auderi, Mohammad Aulia Rachman
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
The author who will publish the manuscript at DiE: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Manajemen, agree to the following terms:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories, pre-prints sites or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater dissemination of published work
