Lobster Puerulus Trading and Cultivation in Situbondo: A Financial Feasibility and Risk Analysis
Abstract
Lobster (Panulirus spp.) aquaculture holds significant economic potential for coastal Indonesia, including Situbondo, East Java, relying heavily on wild puerulus harvest. However, developing sustainable cultivation and trading ventures faces considerable financial uncertainties due to biological, market, operational, and policy risks. This study assesses the economic feasibility and identifies key financial risks for lobster cultivation and puerulus trading in Situbondo. An integrated framework combining financial analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation for risk assessment was used, utilizing primary data and secondary sources. Probabilistic analysis identified key risk factors impacting profitability through sensitivity analysis. The financial modelling and analysis resulted positive valuation for both trading (48 billion rupiah NPV, B/C ratio 1.12) and cultivation (0.99 billion rupiah NPV, B/C ratio 1.52). The risk analysis identified 4 main risk factors: selling price, survival rate, exchange rate, and interest rate. Ultimately, this risk-integrated feasibility assessment provides crucial insights for investors, farmers, and policymakers, supporting informed decisions for sustainable lobster aquaculture development in Situbondo.Downloads
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